Writing as an academic, I desperately want to get my hands on (the demand data for) the iPad.  Specifically,  I wonder about the “pre-order” demands that have been placed.
I am not writing this as a “hater” or critic of the iPad. Â I just would love to see if the demand spiked on the first day and dropped precipitously, or whether the demand over the 21 days prior to shipping stayed relatively constant, or even ramped up as we approached the 3rd of April.
Here’s what I wonder: Â people who are early adopters, and the first to get in line and wait for days for a new product, are by all anecdotal evidence I have heard the ones who pre-order, and pre-ordered on the first day they could. Â And in the case of my brother, ordered it as soon as the Apple Store made it available.
If my supposition is true, then the demand for pre-ordered items would have been heavily front-loaded. Â Conversely, Â I would find it quite interesting if demand for the iPad through pre-ordering had any sort of ramping to the demand pattern. Â If the demand was increasing, then the big question of the day would be: Â Why?
The next question is are the people who would normally stand in line to get the next “really cool product” the same who would want to pre-order right away (and thus reduce or eliminate lines at the stores) or is the psychology of waiting in line for a “cool new product” palpably different from the psychology of “getting” it?
Anyone have any thoughts or insights into this?
Steve, Prior to April 3, I’d like your criteria for what would allow the iPad to be classified as a “success” in your eyes. I believe it will be a success, and I think it’s justifiably already considered a success in the eyes of many, just based on the pre-order volume. If it’s possible for it to be viewed as a success in your eyes, please state what it would take (# of units sold? # of iBooks sold?)
I could be snarky and write something like “Actually prove to live up to the hype and be magical” but that would be silly.
I didn’t write that the iPad won’t be successful. In fact, I find it interesting that simply by questioning the demand patterns I am somehow challenging the success of this device.
First: Success for the device in my mind is simple. Is Apple profiting from selling the device. And are the profits (in the near- to mid-term) increasing? If they are profiting then it is obviously a success. Businesses sell things to make a profit, and thus that is success. I will even go so far as to say that, for at least the first 2 or 3 years, Apple will dominate the market for multi-touch large-screen keyboard-less media devices.
That said, I would like to point out that any time I have spoken “against” the iPad it wasn’t ever to argue that the device won’t be successful. I have always believed it would be. I just challenge the notion that it is a) magical and b) will somehow “change the world” on its own. I voiced my reasons for why I believe people (such as I) won’t buy the device. Multi-tasking (of the OS, not the user) being one example that I personally would want to have first. Others want that user-facing camera.
Alas, for some reason pointing out why people won’t buy a device is seen as “hating” on the device.