The Professor's Notes

My brother shared with me an interesting posting, where the question is asked “Is Amazon Lying about eBooks outselling printed books?”

I found the post to be an interesting read but there exists one GLARING problem:  they misuse statistics and probabilities, and reach erroneous (though perhaps accidentally correct) conclusions.

They are acting as if previous numbers/ratios of hardcover to paperback books remain UNCHANGED with the introduction of digital books.

Let’s say, for the sake of argument, that the split has been 77/23 paperback to hardcover. To come in and say that ebooks are 29% which is more than Hardcovers, but not more than the 77% paperback percentage is, well, silly. That would then result in 129% of sales.

Here’s what the author(s) wrote:

“…But then I discovered a business analyst who’d found an even bigger problem with Amazon’s statistic. According to the Nielsen Bookscan service,hardcover books accounted for just 23% of all books sold in the previous year.

So what happens if you ask how many “printed books” Amazon sold, instead of using the smaller number of “hardcover books”? Following the same ratio, Amazon would be selling approximately 334 paperbacks for every 100 hardcover books — or a total of 434 printed books for every 180 ebooks. That would mean over 70% of the books Amazon sells are still printed books — 180 out of 614 — with ebooks accounting for just 29.3% of all the books that Amazon sells.

I do have to insert one quick correction to their comment: the analyst actually wrote that hardcover books account for “23% of total dead-tree book sales”  and that’s important.

Okay, in reality here is what they did:

They read that 23% of all books sold are hardcover. That works out to about 4.3478 books for each percent. They then multiplied that number by 77% to get the magical number of softcover books sold: 334.78 softcover books. They then add those (read: 100%) and compare that to the number of ebooks sold (180). Read the rest of this entry »

First, it was Apple’s delay in approving apps that was a problem.  Then Apple actually started removing (oops, “failing to approve”) the Google Voice app.  Do we see another App Store war coming with the Kindle App? Read the rest of this entry »

With all the discussion about the Kindle, the Sony eReader, and other “digital book” devices, it is sometimes hard to remember we are at the beginning of what could be a significant transformation of how we read.  Amazon has given us the best glimpse into the future with wireless delivery of content, synchronizing your reading between devices, and offering larger (and therefore, smaller) reading platforms.

This can make for a very interesting future.  I can imagine a very fluid world with digital books, using much of the technology already existing.  Let’s discuss briefly the existing tech (in the Kindle) and the look at how we can imagine a new reading world. Read the rest of this entry »

Those who know me personally know I have a strong desire to see digital textbooks succeed.  I think it has the potential to deliver a Win-Win for most of the major stakeholders, including the authors, the publishers, the environment (potentially) and the students.¹ Perhaps the biggest challenge facing everyone in this is how to achieve that “win-win”and this involves a mix of pricing, availability, and convenience.  I hope to address that in this post. Read the rest of this entry »